Cheetahs vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 51.2%draw 2.5%46.3% PerpignanPerpignan 78.8%draw 2.5%18.7% CheetahsCheetahs 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Perpignan and 22 Cheetahs, half of them between 6 Perpignan and 11 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 1 Cheetahs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Cheetahs 1270, Perpignan 1424 — 154 points, favouring Perpignan
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–1–0Perpignan1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | Cheetahs 20–20 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | National Rugby Centre Amsterdam |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.