Cheetahs vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 46.6%draw 2.5%50.9% ScarletsScarlets 68.8%draw 2.5%28.7% CheetahsCheetahs 37.6%draw 2.5%59.9% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Scarlets and 14 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 1 Scarlets.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Scarlets.
Cheetahs 1260, Scarlets 1334 — 75 points, favouring Scarlets
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–5Scarlets6 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Scarlets by 12.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-13 | Scarlets 20–17 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-12-17 | Cheetahs 26–45 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2019-11-02 | Scarlets 17–13 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-02-24 | Scarlets 43–21 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2018-05-05 | Scarlets 43–8 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.