Cheetahs vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 58.5%draw 2.5%39.0% ScarletsScarlets 70.9%draw 2.5%26.6% CheetahsCheetahs 40.6%draw 2.5%56.9% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Scarlets and 19 Cheetahs, half of them between 6 Scarlets and 10 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 2 Cheetahs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Cheetahs 1270, Scarlets 1273 — 4 points, favouring Scarlets
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–5Scarlets6 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Scarlets by 12.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-13 | Scarlets 20–17 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-12-17 | Cheetahs 26–45 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2019-11-02 | Scarlets 17–13 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-02-24 | Scarlets 43–21 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2018-05-05 | Scarlets 43–8 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.