Cheetahs vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 34.8%draw 2.5%62.7% SharksSharks 83.8%draw 2.5%13.7% CheetahsCheetahs 22.4%draw 2.5%75.1% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 Sharks and 11 Cheetahs, half of them between 15 Sharks and 3 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 5 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Cheetahs 1270, Sharks 1746 — 477 points, favouring Sharks
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs2–0–3Sharks5 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Sharks by 6.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | Cheetahs 32–29 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-03-25 | Cheetahs 30–38 Sharks | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2016-07-09 | Sharks 26–10 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2015-03-14 | Cheetahs 10–27 Sharks | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-02-14 | Sharks 29–35 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.