Cheetahs vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 24.7%draw 2.5%72.8% SharksSharks 79.5%draw 2.5%18.0% CheetahsCheetahs 21.0%draw 2.5%76.5% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Sharks and 11 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 5 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Sharks.
Cheetahs 1260, Sharks 1613 — 353 points, favouring Sharks
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs2–0–3Sharks5 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Sharks by 6.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | Cheetahs 32–29 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-03-25 | Cheetahs 30–38 Sharks | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2016-07-09 | Sharks 26–10 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2015-03-14 | Cheetahs 10–27 Sharks | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-02-14 | Sharks 29–35 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.