Cheetahs vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 17.5%draw 2.5%80.0% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 88.6%draw 2.5%8.9% CheetahsCheetahs 12.9%draw 2.5%84.6% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 30 Stade Francais Paris and 8 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 8 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Cheetahs 1260, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 516 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–1Stade Francais Paris1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Stade Francais Paris by 23.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Cheetahs 22–45 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | National Rugby Centre Amsterdam |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.