Cheetahs vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 26.9%draw 2.5%70.6% StormersStormers 86.4%draw 2.5%11.1% CheetahsCheetahs 18.3%draw 2.5%79.2% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 32 Stormers and 7 Cheetahs, half of them between 19 Stormers and 1 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 8 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Cheetahs 1270, Stormers 1845 — 576 points, favouring Stormers
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–5Stormers6 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Stormers by 14.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-07-01 | Cheetahs 34–40 Stormers | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-04-01 | Stormers 53–10 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2016-05-28 | Stormers 31–24 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2016-03-05 | Cheetahs 10–20 Stormers | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-05-30 | Stormers 42–12 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.