Cheetahs vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 22.0%draw 2.5%75.5% StormersStormers 84.5%draw 2.5%13.0% CheetahsCheetahs 17.2%draw 2.5%80.3% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 28 Stormers and 9 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 7 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Stormers.
Cheetahs 1260, Stormers 1716 — 456 points, favouring Stormers
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–5Stormers6 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Stormers by 14.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-07-01 | Cheetahs 34–40 Stormers | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-04-01 | Stormers 53–10 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2016-05-28 | Stormers 31–24 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2016-03-05 | Cheetahs 10–20 Stormers | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-05-30 | Stormers 42–12 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.