Cheetahs vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 36.8%draw 2.5%60.7% ToulonToulon 71.1%draw 2.5%26.4% CheetahsCheetahs 30.6%draw 2.5%66.9% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Toulon and 12 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 2 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Toulon.
Cheetahs 1260, Toulon 1435 — 175 points, favouring Toulon
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–1Toulon1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Toulon by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | Toulon 36–21 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.