Cheetahs vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 36.5%draw 2.5%61.0% ToulonToulon 83.9%draw 2.5%13.6% CheetahsCheetahs 24.3%draw 2.5%73.2% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Toulon and 12 Cheetahs, half of them between 14 Toulon and 4 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 4 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Cheetahs 1270, Toulon 1663 — 393 points, favouring Toulon
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–1Toulon1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Toulon by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | Toulon 36–21 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.