Cheetahs vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 40.1%draw 2.5%57.4% Western ForceWestern Force 77.1%draw 2.5%20.4% CheetahsCheetahs 30.0%draw 2.5%67.5% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Western Force and 15 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 2 Western Force.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Western Force.
Cheetahs 1260, Western Force 1463 — 203 points, favouring Western Force
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs2–0–0Western Force2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Cheetahs by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-07-02 | Cheetahs 30–29 Western Force | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-04-11 | Western Force 15–24 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.