Cheetahs vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 50.2%draw 2.5%47.3% ZebreZebre 67.5%draw 2.5%30.0% CheetahsCheetahs 40.0%draw 2.5%57.5% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Zebre and 24 Cheetahs, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Zebre.
Cheetahs 1260, Zebre 1309 — 49 points, favouring Zebre
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs6–0–1Zebre7 meetings, 2017 to 2025 · Cheetahs by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | Cheetahs 22–18 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | National Rugby Centre Amsterdam |
| 2023-12-09 | Zebre 15–33 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2020-01-04 | Zebre 41–13 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2019-01-26 | Cheetahs 61–28 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2019-01-06 | Zebre 12–27 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.