Cheetahs vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 74.6%draw 2.5%22.9% ZebreZebre 57.8%draw 2.5%39.7% CheetahsCheetahs 57.6%draw 2.5%39.9% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Zebre and 25 Cheetahs, half of them between level and 15 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 6 Cheetahs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Cheetahs 1270, Zebre 1071 — 199 points, favouring Cheetahs
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs6–0–1Zebre7 meetings, 2017 to 2025 · Cheetahs by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | Cheetahs 22–18 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | National Rugby Centre Amsterdam |
| 2023-12-09 | Zebre 15–33 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2020-01-04 | Zebre 41–13 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2019-01-26 | Cheetahs 61–28 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2019-01-06 | Zebre 12–27 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.