Chiefs vs Crusaders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Chiefs 61.6%draw 2.5%35.9% CrusadersCrusaders 61.6%draw 2.5%35.9% ChiefsChiefs 48.3%draw 2.5%49.2% CrusadersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chiefs v Crusaders, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Crusaders and 26 Chiefs, half of them between 4 Crusaders and 14 Chiefs, with the middle run at 4 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Crusaders.
Chiefs 1840, Crusaders 1777 — 63 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs13–0–16Crusaders29 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 0.9 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Chiefs by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Chiefs 49–12 Crusaders | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2026-05-22 | Crusaders 36–32 Chiefs | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2026-02-28 | Chiefs 33–43 Crusaders | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-06-21 | Crusaders 16–12 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-05-10 | Crusaders 19–35 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 29. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.