Chiefs vs Crusaders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Chiefs 66.5%draw 2.5%31.0% CrusadersCrusaders 55.1%draw 2.5%42.4% ChiefsChiefs 54.6%draw 2.5%42.9% CrusadersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Crusaders and 21 Chiefs, with the middle run at 4 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chiefs, negative favours Crusaders.
Chiefs 1775, Crusaders 1717 — 59 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs13–0–15Crusaders28 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 0.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Chiefs by 8.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Chiefs 49–12 Crusaders | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2026-05-22 | Crusaders 36–32 Chiefs | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-06-21 | Crusaders 16–12 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-05-10 | Crusaders 19–35 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-02-21 | Chiefs 49–24 Crusaders | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 28. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.