Chiefs vs Fijian Drua
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Chiefs 82.4%draw 2.5%15.1% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 27.1%draw 2.5%70.4% ChiefsChiefs 77.0%draw 2.5%20.5% Fijian DruaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Fijian Drua and 37 Chiefs, with the middle run at 12 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chiefs, negative favours Fijian Drua.
Chiefs 1775, Fijian Drua 1277 — 499 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs4–0–1Fijian Drua5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Chiefs by 13.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Chiefs 42–22 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-03-08 | Fijian Drua 28–24 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2024-03-16 | Chiefs 46–29 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2023-04-21 | Chiefs 50–17 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2022-05-28 | Fijian Drua 34–35 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.