Chiefs vs Fijian Drua
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Chiefs 86.3%draw 2.5%11.2% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 24.9%draw 2.5%72.6% ChiefsChiefs 80.1%draw 2.5%17.4% Fijian DruaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chiefs v Fijian Drua, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Fijian Drua and 36 Chiefs, half of them between 4 Chiefs and 23 Chiefs, with the middle run at 12 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-16 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Fijian Drua.
Chiefs 1840, Fijian Drua 1225 — 615 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs4–0–1Fijian Drua5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Chiefs by 13.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Chiefs 42–22 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-03-08 | Fijian Drua 28–24 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2024-03-16 | Chiefs 46–29 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2023-04-21 | Chiefs 50–17 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2022-05-28 | Fijian Drua 34–35 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.