Chiefs vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Chiefs 85.7%draw 2.5%11.8% HighlandersHighlanders 30.2%draw 2.5%67.3% ChiefsChiefs 76.6%draw 2.5%20.9% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chiefs v Highlanders, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Highlanders and 36 Chiefs, half of them between 3 Chiefs and 23 Chiefs, with the middle run at 11 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-27 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Highlanders.
Chiefs 1840, Highlanders 1314 — 526 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs12–1–9Highlanders22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Chiefs by 4.7 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Chiefs by 13.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Chiefs 42–12 Highlanders | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2026-02-21 | Highlanders 23–26 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-05-30 | Highlanders 24–41 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Chiefs 46–10 Highlanders | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2024-03-23 | Chiefs 28–21 Highlanders | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.