Chiefs vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Chiefs 50.7%draw 2.5%46.8% HurricanesHurricanes 72.9%draw 2.5%24.6% ChiefsChiefs 37.4%draw 2.5%60.1% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chiefs v Hurricanes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Hurricanes and 18 Chiefs, half of them between 7 Hurricanes and 9 Chiefs, with the middle run at 1 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Hurricanes.
Chiefs 1840, Hurricanes 1912 — 72 points, favouring Hurricanes
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs11–1–13Hurricanes25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 4.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Hurricanes by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Hurricanes 60–5 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2026-04-18 | Chiefs 22–17 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-05-03 | Hurricanes 35–17 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2024-06-15 | Hurricanes 19–30 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2024-05-24 | Chiefs 17–20 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.