Chiefs vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Chiefs 51.4%draw 2.5%46.1% HurricanesHurricanes 69.7%draw 2.5%27.8% ChiefsChiefs 39.5%draw 2.5%58.0% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Hurricanes and 21 Chiefs, with the middle run at 1 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chiefs, negative favours Hurricanes.
Chiefs 1775, Hurricanes 1864 — 89 points, favouring Hurricanes
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs11–1–13Hurricanes25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 4.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Hurricanes by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Hurricanes 60–5 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2026-04-18 | Chiefs 22–17 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-05-03 | Hurricanes 35–17 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2024-06-15 | Hurricanes 19–30 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2024-05-24 | Chiefs 17–20 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.