Chiefs vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Chiefs 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% LionsLions 55.5%draw 2.5%42.0% ChiefsChiefs 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Lions and 26 Chiefs, with the middle run at 5 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chiefs, negative favours Lions.
Chiefs 1775, Lions 1678 — 97 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs0–0–2Lions2 meetings, 2016 to 2019 · Lions by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-19 | Chiefs 17–23 Lions | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2016-03-05 | Chiefs 32–36 Lions | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.