Chiefs vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Chiefs 83.3%draw 2.5%14.2% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 28.3%draw 2.5%69.2% ChiefsChiefs 78.0%draw 2.5%19.5% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chiefs v New South Wales Waratahs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 New South Wales Waratahs and 34 Chiefs, half of them between 2 Chiefs and 21 Chiefs, with the middle run at 10 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chiefs, a bar to the left helps New South Wales Waratahs.
Chiefs 1840, New South Wales Waratahs 1289 — 551 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs9–0–2New South Wales Waratahs11 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Chiefs by 15.6 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Chiefs by 19.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Chiefs 42–14 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-04-11 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–14 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-04-26 | New South Wales Waratahs 22–38 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-03-24 | New South Wales Waratahs 14–24 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-06-04 | Chiefs 39–15 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.