Chiefs vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Chiefs 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 29.1%draw 2.5%68.4% ChiefsChiefs 75.5%draw 2.5%22.0% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 New South Wales Waratahs and 34 Chiefs, with the middle run at 10 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chiefs, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Chiefs 1775, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 464 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs9–0–2New South Wales Waratahs11 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Chiefs by 15.6 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Chiefs by 19.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Chiefs 42–14 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-04-11 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–14 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-04-26 | New South Wales Waratahs 22–38 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-03-24 | New South Wales Waratahs 14–24 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-06-04 | Chiefs 39–15 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.