Chiefs vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Chiefs 83.8%draw 2.5%13.7% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 40.0%draw 2.5%57.5% ChiefsChiefs 70.6%draw 2.5%26.9% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Chiefs v Queensland Reds, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Queensland Reds and 33 Chiefs, half of them between 3 Chiefs and 20 Chiefs, with the middle run at 10 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Queensland Reds.
Chiefs 1840, Queensland Reds 1460 — 380 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs11–0–3Queensland Reds14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Chiefs by 13.4 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Chiefs by 6.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Chiefs 46–24 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2026-05-08 | Queensland Reds 21–31 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-04-04 | Chiefs 27–15 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2024-06-07 | Chiefs 43–21 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2024-03-09 | Queensland Reds 25–19 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.