Chiefs vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Chiefs 75.1%draw 2.5%22.4% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 39.5%draw 2.5%58.0% ChiefsChiefs 67.6%draw 2.5%29.9% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Queensland Reds and 30 Chiefs, with the middle run at 8 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chiefs, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Chiefs 1775, Queensland Reds 1454 — 321 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs11–0–3Queensland Reds14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Chiefs by 13.4 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Chiefs by 6.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Chiefs 46–24 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2026-05-08 | Queensland Reds 21–31 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-04-04 | Chiefs 27–15 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2024-06-07 | Chiefs 43–21 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2024-03-09 | Queensland Reds 25–19 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.