Chiefs vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Chiefs 68.1%draw 2.5%29.4% StormersStormers 54.2%draw 2.5%43.3% ChiefsChiefs 55.8%draw 2.5%41.7% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stormers and 25 Chiefs, with the middle run at 5 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chiefs, negative favours Stormers.
Chiefs 1775, Stormers 1716 — 59 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs4–0–1Stormers5 meetings, 2015 to 2018 · Chiefs by 10.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-12 | Stormers 9–15 Chiefs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2017-07-22 | Stormers 11–17 Chiefs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2017-04-08 | Stormers 34–26 Chiefs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2016-07-23 | Stormers 21–60 Chiefs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2015-03-14 | Stormers 19–28 Chiefs | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.