Chiefs vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Chiefs 81.4%draw 2.5%16.1% Western ForceWestern Force 40.7%draw 2.5%56.8% ChiefsChiefs 69.7%draw 2.5%27.8% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chiefs v Western Force, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Western Force and 37 Chiefs, half of them between 2 Chiefs and 23 Chiefs, with the middle run at 11 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-27 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chiefs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chiefs, a bar to the left helps Western Force.
Chiefs 1840, Western Force 1471 — 369 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs9–0–0Western Force9 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Chiefs by 23.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Western Force 14–24 Chiefs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2025-04-25 | Chiefs 56–22 Western Force | Super Rugby | Blake Park |
| 2024-05-04 | Chiefs 56–7 Western Force | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2023-06-03 | Western Force 19–43 Chiefs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2022-05-21 | Chiefs 54–21 Western Force | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.