Chiefs vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Chiefs 79.0%draw 2.5%18.5% Western ForceWestern Force 40.1%draw 2.5%57.4% ChiefsChiefs 67.1%draw 2.5%30.4% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chiefs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Western Force and 36 Chiefs, with the middle run at 11 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Chiefs are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chiefs, negative favours Western Force.
Chiefs 1775, Western Force 1463 — 312 points, favouring Chiefs
Chiefs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chiefs9–0–0Western Force9 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Chiefs by 23.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Western Force 14–24 Chiefs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2025-04-25 | Chiefs 56–22 Western Force | Super Rugby | Blake Park |
| 2024-05-04 | Chiefs 56–7 Western Force | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2023-06-03 | Western Force 19–43 Chiefs | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2022-05-21 | Chiefs 54–21 Western Force | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.