Chile vs England
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Chile 9.6%89.4% EnglandEngland 95.2%3.8% ChileChile 6.6%92.4% EnglandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 47 England and level, with the middle run at 18 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-12 on a tight afternoon and 42-24 on an open one.
Why Chile are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chile, negative favours England.
Chile 1202, England 1763 — 561 points, favouring England
Chile are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile0–0–1England1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · England by 71.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-23 | England 71–0 Chile | Rugby World Cup | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.