Chile vs England
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 6.4%92.6% EnglandEngland 96.5%2.5% ChileChile 4.3%94.7% EnglandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v England, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 52 England and 1 England, half of them between 36 England and 7 England, with the middle run at 20 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-14 on a tight afternoon and 46-26 on an open one.
Why Chile are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps England.
Chile 1530, England 2235 — 706 points, favouring England
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile0–0–1England1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · England by 71.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-23 | England 71–0 Chile | Rugby World Cup | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.