Chile vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 10.9%88.1% FranceFrance 95.4%3.6% ChileChile 7.1%91.9% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v France, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 49 France and 1 Chile, half of them between 33 France and 5 France, with the middle run at 16 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-16 on a tight afternoon and 44-28 on an open one.
Why Chile are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps France.
Chile 1530, France 2301 — 771 points, favouring France
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile1–0–1France2 meetings, 1954 to 1960 · France by 16.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1960-08-01 | Chile 6–0 France | — | Stade Français |
| 1954-09-18 | Chile 3–42 France | — | Stade Français |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.