Chile vs Hong Kong China
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 84.6%draw 2.2%13.2% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 31.1%draw 2.2%66.7% ChileChile 76.4%draw 2.2%21.4% Hong Kong ChinaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Hong Kong China, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Hong Kong China and 45 Chile, half of them between 3 Chile and 30 Chile, with the middle run at 14 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Hong Kong China.
Chile 1530, Hong Kong China 1297 — 233 points, favouring Chile
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile2–0–1Hong Kong China3 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Chile by 6.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Chile 38–17 Hong Kong China | — | Estadio Sausalito |
| 2024-07-06 | Chile 22–17 Hong Kong China | — | Estadio Fiscal de Talca |
| 2017-11-14 | Hong Kong China 13–6 Chile | — | Kings Park Sports Ground |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.