Chile vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 23.4%draw 1.6%75.0% JapanJapan 91.1%draw 1.6%7.3% ChileChile 14.3%draw 1.7%84.0% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 39 Japan and 10 Chile, half of them between 24 Japan and 1 Japan, with the middle run at 9 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Chile are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Japan.
Chile 1530, Japan 1846 — 316 points, favouring Japan
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile0–0–1Japan1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Japan by 30.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-10 | Japan 42–12 Chile | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.