Chile vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Chile 52.8%draw 2.8%44.4% JapanJapan 72.4%draw 2.8%24.8% ChileChile 40.9%draw 2.8%56.3% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Japan and 29 Chile, with the middle run at 1 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chile, negative favours Japan.
Chile 1202, Japan 1310 — 108 points, favouring Japan
Chile are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile0–0–1Japan1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Japan by 30.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-10 | Japan 42–12 Chile | Rugby World Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.