Chile vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 41.9%draw 2.8%55.3% PortugalPortugal 74.1%draw 2.8%23.1% ChileChile 31.7%draw 2.8%65.5% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Portugal and 16 Chile, half of them between 9 Portugal and 6 Chile, with the middle run at 1 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Chile are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Chile 1530, Portugal 1638 — 108 points, favouring Portugal
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile0–0–4Portugal4 meetings, 2004 to 2019 · Portugal by 10.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-16 | Chile 18–23 Portugal | — | Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo |
| 2012-11-17 | Chile 22–28 Portugal | — | Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo |
| 2005-11-06 | Portugal 31–18 Chile | — | — |
| 2004-10-30 | Chile 9–28 Portugal | — | Prince of Wales Country Club |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.