Chile vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Chile 87.1%draw 1.1%11.8% RomaniaRomania 17.9%draw 1.1%81.0% ChileChile 84.1%draw 1.1%14.8% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Romania and 47 Chile, with the middle run at 17 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-12 on a tight afternoon and 40-23 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chile, negative favours Romania.
Chile 1202, Romania 788 — 414 points, favouring Chile
Chile are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile2–0–2Romania4 meetings, 2019 to 2025 · Chile by 7.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | Chile 40–16 Romania | — | Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos |
| 2024-11-09 | Romania 14–44 Chile | — | Bucharest(neutral) |
| 2022-11-05 | Romania 30–23 Chile | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2019-06-08 | Chile 11–27 Romania | — | Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.