Chile vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 86.3%draw 2.0%11.7% RomaniaRomania 30.7%draw 2.0%67.3% ChileChile 77.1%draw 2.0%20.9% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Romania and 40 Chile, half of them between 3 Chile and 26 Chile, with the middle run at 12 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Chile 1530, Romania 1265 — 265 points, favouring Chile
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile3–0–2Romania5 meetings, 2019 to 2026 · Chile by 9.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Chile 48–31 Romania | — | Estadio Nacional |
| 2025-07-05 | Chile 40–16 Romania | — | Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos |
| 2024-11-09 | Romania 14–44 Chile | — | Bucharest(neutral) |
| 2022-11-05 | Romania 30–23 Chile | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2019-06-08 | Chile 11–27 Romania | — | Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.