Chile vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 88.4%draw 1.2%10.4% RussiaRussia 29.5%draw 1.2%69.3% ChileChile 79.1%draw 1.2%19.7% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 46 Chile, half of them between 5 Chile and 31 Chile, with the middle run at 16 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-14 on a tight afternoon and 41-25 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Chile 1530, Russia 1137 — 393 points, favouring Chile
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile2–0–1Russia3 meetings, 2017 to 2021 · Russia by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-26 | Russia 27–42 Chile | — | Yug Stadium |
| 2021-11-20 | Russia 29–30 Chile | — | Yug Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Russia 42–11 Chile | — | Kings Park Sports Ground(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.