Chile vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 59.6%draw 3.0%37.4% SpainSpain 67.8%draw 3.0%29.2% ChileChile 44.4%draw 3.0%52.6% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Spain and 32 Chile, half of them between 4 Spain and 18 Chile, with the middle run at 4 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Chile 1530, Spain 1566 — 36 points, favouring Spain
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile2–0–4Spain6 meetings, 1995 to 2019 · Spain by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-15 | Chile 22–29 Spain | — | Estadio la Granja |
| 2015-11-21 | Spain 54–10 Chile | — | Estadio El Malecon |
| 2013-11-09 | Chile 3–26 Spain | — | Centro de Alto Rendimiento del Rugby, La Reina |
| 2007-08-15 | Chile 25–30 Spain | — | Prince of Wales Country Club |
| 1999-07-24 | Chile 20–18 Spain | — | — |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.