Chile vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 63.8%draw 2.9%33.3% TongaTonga 47.0%draw 2.9%50.1% ChileChile 57.0%draw 2.9%40.1% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Tonga and 30 Chile, half of them between 4 Tonga and 17 Chile, with the middle run at 4 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Chile 1530, Tonga 1454 — 76 points, favouring Chile
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile0–0–2Tonga2 meetings, 2010 to 2022 · Tonga by 15.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-12 | Tonga 39–10 Chile | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2010-09-29 | Chile 30–32 Tonga | — | Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.