Chile vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 61.0%draw 3.0%36.0% UruguayUruguay 66.5%draw 3.0%30.5% ChileChile 44.5%draw 3.0%52.5% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Uruguay and 29 Chile, half of them between 4 Uruguay and 16 Chile, with the middle run at 3 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Chile 1530, Uruguay 1520 — 10 points, favouring Chile
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile13–1–43Uruguay57 meetings, 1948 to 2025 · Uruguay by 8.6 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Uruguay by 15.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-06 | Uruguay 18–21 Chile | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2025-08-30 | Chile 16–28 Uruguay | — | Estadio Municipal de La Pintana |
| 2023-07-29 | Uruguay 26–25 Chile | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2021-07-18 | Uruguay 15–10 Chile | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2019-02-08 | Uruguay 20–5 Chile | — | Estadio Charrúa |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 57. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.