Clermont Auvergne vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 81.3%draw 2.5%16.2% DragonsDragons 36.6%draw 2.5%60.9% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 70.7%draw 2.5%26.8% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Dragons and 39 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 12 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Dragons.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Dragons 1369 — 359 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne2–0–0Dragons2 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Clermont Auvergne by 33.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-18 | Dragons 7–49 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2018-12-15 | Clermont Auvergne 49–24 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.