Clermont Auvergne vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 68.9%draw 2.5%28.6% DragonsDragons 55.9%draw 2.5%41.6% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 54.3%draw 2.5%43.2% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Dragons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Dragons and 23 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 2 Dragons and 14 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 5 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Dragons.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Dragons 1330 — 136 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne2–0–0Dragons2 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Clermont Auvergne by 33.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-18 | Dragons 7–49 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2018-12-15 | Clermont Auvergne 49–24 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.