Clermont Auvergne vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 62.3%draw 2.5%35.2% EdinburghEdinburgh 65.6%draw 2.5%31.9% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 46.9%draw 2.5%50.6% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Edinburgh and 22 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 5 Edinburgh and 11 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 3 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Edinburgh 1528 — 62 points, favouring Edinburgh
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne1–0–0Edinburgh1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Clermont Auvergne by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-08 | Clermont Auvergne 31–18 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.