Clermont Auvergne vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 66.6%draw 2.5%30.9% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 49.0%draw 2.5%48.5% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Exeter Chiefs and 26 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 5 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 26 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne3–0–1Exeter Chiefs4 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Clermont Auvergne by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-21 | Clermont Auvergne 48–26 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2016-10-16 | Exeter Chiefs 8–35 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2015-12-20 | Clermont Auvergne 42–10 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2015-12-12 | Exeter Chiefs 31–14 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.