Clermont Auvergne vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 52.5%draw 2.5%45.0% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 76.6%draw 2.5%20.9% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 35.6%draw 2.5%61.9% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Exeter Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Exeter Chiefs and 21 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 6 Exeter Chiefs and 10 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 1 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Exeter Chiefs.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Exeter Chiefs 1716 — 250 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne3–0–1Exeter Chiefs4 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Clermont Auvergne by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-21 | Clermont Auvergne 48–26 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2016-10-16 | Exeter Chiefs 8–35 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2015-12-20 | Clermont Auvergne 42–10 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2015-12-12 | Exeter Chiefs 31–14 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.