Clermont Auvergne vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 54.9%draw 2.5%42.6% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 70.9%draw 2.5%26.6% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 40.7%draw 2.5%56.8% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Glasgow Warriors and 22 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 63 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne0–0–1Glasgow Warriors1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Clermont Auvergne 21–33 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.