Clermont Auvergne vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 39.8%draw 2.5%57.7% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 76.0%draw 2.5%21.5% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 29.4%draw 2.5%68.1% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Gloucester Rugby and 16 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 10 Gloucester Rugby and 6 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 218 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne0–0–1Gloucester Rugby1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Gloucester Rugby by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-15 | Gloucester Rugby 28–17 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.