Clermont Auvergne vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 68.3%draw 2.5%29.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 49.4%draw 2.5%48.1% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 59.1%draw 2.5%38.4% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Gloucester Rugby and 30 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 6 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 209 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne0–0–1Gloucester Rugby1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Gloucester Rugby by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-15 | Gloucester Rugby 28–17 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.