Clermont Auvergne vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 62.8%draw 2.5%34.7% HarlequinsHarlequins 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 47.5%draw 2.5%50.0% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Harlequins and 23 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 4 Harlequins and 12 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 4 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Harlequins 1542 — 76 points, favouring Harlequins
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne3–0–0Harlequins3 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Clermont Auvergne by 14.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-18 | Harlequins 19–26 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2019-11-16 | Clermont Auvergne 53–21 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2019-04-20 | Clermont Auvergne 32–27 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.