Clermont Auvergne vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 64.5%draw 2.5%33.0% La RochelleLa Rochelle 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 48.5%draw 2.5%49.0% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 La Rochelle and 26 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 5 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours La Rochelle.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, La Rochelle 1748 — 19 points, favouring La Rochelle
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne13–2–8La Rochelle23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 3.0 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · La Rochelle by 4.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Clermont Auvergne 32–27 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-09-13 | La Rochelle 34–16 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-03-29 | Clermont Auvergne 33–19 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-12-21 | La Rochelle 20–15 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-03-03 | La Rochelle 42–3 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.