Clermont Auvergne vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 49.1%draw 2.5%48.4% La RochelleLa Rochelle 85.4%draw 2.5%12.1% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 28.2%draw 2.5%69.3% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 La Rochelle and 17 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 8 La Rochelle and 8 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, La Rochelle 1820 — 354 points, favouring La Rochelle
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Clermont Auvergne are under 50% and still the likelier winner: La Rochelle are on 48.4%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne13–1–9La Rochelle23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · La Rochelle by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | La Rochelle 38–13 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2026-01-25 | Clermont Auvergne 32–27 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-09-13 | La Rochelle 34–16 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-03-29 | Clermont Auvergne 33–19 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-12-21 | La Rochelle 20–15 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.