Clermont Auvergne vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 44.0%draw 2.5%53.5% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 81.8%draw 2.5%15.7% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 29.1%draw 2.5%68.4% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Leicester Tigers and 16 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 9 Leicester Tigers and 7 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 1 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-32 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 334 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne0–0–4Leicester Tigers4 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Leicester Tigers by 12.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-13 | Clermont Auvergne 29–44 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2022-12-17 | Leicester Tigers 23–16 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2022-04-16 | Leicester Tigers 27–17 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2022-04-10 | Clermont Auvergne 10–29 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.