Clermont Auvergne vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 51.8%draw 2.5%45.7% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 38.2%draw 2.5%59.3% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Leicester Tigers and 21 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 1 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 111 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne0–0–4Leicester Tigers4 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Leicester Tigers by 12.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-13 | Clermont Auvergne 29–44 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2022-12-17 | Leicester Tigers 23–16 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2022-04-16 | Leicester Tigers 27–17 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2022-04-10 | Clermont Auvergne 10–29 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.