Clermont Auvergne vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 48.4%draw 2.5%49.1% LeinsterLeinster 75.3%draw 2.5%22.2% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 35.1%draw 2.5%62.4% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Leinster and 16 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Leinster.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Leinster 1912 — 183 points, favouring Leinster
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne1–0–1Leinster2 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Leinster by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Leinster 15–7 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2017-04-23 | Clermont Auvergne 27–22 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.