Clermont Auvergne vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% LyonLyon 70.4%draw 2.5%27.1% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 45.0%draw 2.5%52.5% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Lyon and 22 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 3 Lyon and 12 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 4 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Lyon 1487 — 21 points, favouring Lyon
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne13–0–8Lyon21 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 2.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Clermont Auvergne by 2.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Lyon 40–36 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2026-04-18 | Clermont Auvergne 41–23 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-11-22 | Lyon 43–24 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-04-26 | Clermont Auvergne 39–31 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-11-23 | Lyon 22–30 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.