Clermont Auvergne vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 75.6%draw 2.5%21.9% LyonLyon 41.5%draw 2.5%56.0% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 65.8%draw 2.5%31.7% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Lyon and 31 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 9 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Lyon.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Lyon 1429 — 300 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne13–0–7Lyon20 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 2.9 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Clermont Auvergne by 1.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Clermont Auvergne 41–23 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-11-22 | Lyon 43–24 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-04-26 | Clermont Auvergne 39–31 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-11-23 | Lyon 22–30 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-02-03 | Clermont Auvergne 38–21 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.