Clermont Auvergne vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 87.4%draw 2.5%10.1% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 21.1%draw 2.5%76.4% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Montpellier Herault and 14 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 12 Montpellier Herault and 5 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 506 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne11–0–11Montpellier Herault22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Clermont Auvergne by 3.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Clermont Auvergne 17–20 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-11-01 | Montpellier Herault 7–9 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-06-07 | Montpellier Herault 10–23 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-12-28 | Clermont Auvergne 18–22 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-06-08 | Clermont Auvergne 52–15 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.