Clermont Auvergne vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 54.4%draw 2.5%43.1% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 72.4%draw 2.5%25.1% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 41.4%draw 2.5%56.1% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Montpellier Herault and 26 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 153 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne11–1–11Montpellier Herault23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 1.0 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Clermont Auvergne by 3.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Clermont Auvergne 17–20 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-11-01 | Montpellier Herault 7–9 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-06-07 | Montpellier Herault 10–23 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-12-28 | Clermont Auvergne 18–22 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-06-08 | Clermont Auvergne 52–15 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.