Clermont Auvergne vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 33.2%draw 2.5%64.3% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 83.3%draw 2.5%14.2% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 21.7%draw 2.5%75.8% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Northampton Saints and 14 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 11 Northampton Saints and 4 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 3 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Northampton Saints 1957 — 491 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne5–0–2Northampton Saints7 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 9.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | Northampton Saints 46–24 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2019-03-31 | Clermont Auvergne 61–38 Northampton Saints | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2019-01-12 | Clermont Auvergne 48–40 Northampton Saints | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2018-10-13 | Northampton Saints 20–41 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2018-01-13 | Northampton Saints 34–21 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.