Clermont Auvergne vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 51.1%draw 2.5%46.4% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 71.5%draw 2.5%26.0% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 39.8%draw 2.5%57.7% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Northampton Saints and 22 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 1 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Northampton Saints 1918 — 189 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne4–0–2Northampton Saints6 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 7.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | Northampton Saints 46–24 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2019-01-12 | Clermont Auvergne 48–40 Northampton Saints | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2018-10-13 | Northampton Saints 20–41 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2018-01-13 | Northampton Saints 34–21 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2017-10-21 | Clermont Auvergne 24–7 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.