Clermont Auvergne vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 54.7%draw 2.5%42.8% PauPau 83.1%draw 2.5%14.4% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 28.5%draw 2.5%69.0% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Pau and 17 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 6 Pau and 9 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 1 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Pau 1818 — 352 points, favouring Pau
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne14–0–8Pau22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 9.0 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Clermont Auvergne by 5.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Pau 24–19 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-09-20 | Clermont Auvergne 50–27 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-01-25 | Pau 20–14 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-09-07 | Clermont Auvergne 39–7 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-03-23 | Clermont Auvergne 31–28 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.