Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 71.7%draw 2.5%25.8% PerpignanPerpignan 66.4%draw 2.5%31.1% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 55.3%draw 2.5%42.2% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Perpignan and 27 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 1 Perpignan and 16 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 7 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-15 on a tight afternoon and 32-25 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Perpignan 1424 — 42 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne9–0–3Perpignan12 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 12.2 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Clermont Auvergne by 10.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Clermont Auvergne 45–14 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-12-20 | Perpignan 26–20 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-05-17 | Clermont Auvergne 31–13 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-09-28 | Perpignan 33–3 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-05-11 | Perpignan 28–35 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.