Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 81.0%draw 2.5%16.5% PerpignanClermont Auvergne 76.2%draw 2.5%21.3% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Perpignan and 37 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 11 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Perpignan.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Perpignan 1346 — 383 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne9–0–3Perpignan12 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 12.2 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Clermont Auvergne by 10.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Clermont Auvergne 45–14 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-12-20 | Perpignan 26–20 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-05-17 | Clermont Auvergne 31–13 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-09-28 | Perpignan 33–3 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-05-11 | Perpignan 28–35 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.