Clermont Auvergne vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% Racing 92Racing 92 60.2%draw 2.5%37.3% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 50.8%draw 2.5%46.7% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Racing 92 and 21 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 4 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Racing 92.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Racing 92 1707 — 21 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne7–2–16Racing 9225 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Racing 92 by 4.6 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Racing 92 by 8.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Racing 92 43–31 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-03-22 | Clermont Auvergne 21–23 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-09-14 | Racing 92 33–20 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2024-03-30 | Racing 92 26–10 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2023-12-02 | Clermont Auvergne 23–18 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.