Clermont Auvergne vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 70.3%draw 2.5%27.2% Sale SharksSale Sharks 52.8%draw 2.5%44.7% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 56.3%draw 2.5%41.2% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Sale Sharks and 28 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 6 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Sale Sharks 1558 — 170 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne2–0–1Sale Sharks3 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Sale Sharks by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Clermont Auvergne 14–35 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2022-01-16 | Clermont Auvergne 25–19 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2015-01-17 | Sale Sharks 13–22 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.