Clermont Auvergne vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 56.3%draw 2.5%41.2% Sale SharksSale Sharks 62.0%draw 2.5%35.5% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 45.7%draw 2.5%51.8% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Sale Sharks and 19 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 6 Sale Sharks and 9 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Sale Sharks 1504 — 38 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne2–0–1Sale Sharks3 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Sale Sharks by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Clermont Auvergne 14–35 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2022-01-16 | Clermont Auvergne 25–19 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2015-01-17 | Sale Sharks 13–22 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.