Clermont Auvergne vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 38.8%draw 2.5%58.7% SaracensSaracens 82.7%draw 2.5%14.8% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 26.0%draw 2.5%71.5% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Saracens and 14 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 12 Saracens and 5 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 3 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-31 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Saracens 1861 — 395 points, favouring Saracens
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne4–0–2Saracens6 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Saracens 47–10 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2017-12-17 | Clermont Auvergne 24–21 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2017-12-11 | Saracens 14–46 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2017-05-13 | Clermont Auvergne 17–28 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2015-04-18 | Clermont Auvergne 13–9 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.