Clermont Auvergne vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 60.3%draw 2.5%37.2% SaracensSaracens 69.0%draw 2.5%28.5% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 44.3%draw 2.5%53.2% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Saracens and 25 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 4 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Saracens.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Saracens 1802 — 73 points, favouring Saracens
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne4–0–2Saracens6 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Saracens 47–10 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2017-12-17 | Clermont Auvergne 24–21 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2017-12-11 | Saracens 14–46 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2017-05-13 | Clermont Auvergne 17–28 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2015-04-18 | Clermont Auvergne 13–9 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.