Clermont Auvergne vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 72.0%draw 2.5%25.5% ScarletsScarlets 52.3%draw 2.5%45.2% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 57.7%draw 2.5%39.8% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Scarlets and 26 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 1 Scarlets and 15 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 6 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Scarlets 1273 — 193 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne1–0–1Scarlets2 meetings, 2023 to 2024 · Clermont Auvergne by 9.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-13 | Clermont Auvergne 38–17 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2023-04-07 | Scarlets 32–30 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.