Clermont Auvergne vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 80.7%draw 2.5%16.8% ScarletsScarlets 33.8%draw 2.5%63.7% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 72.0%draw 2.5%25.5% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Scarlets and 35 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 10 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Scarlets.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Scarlets 1334 — 394 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne1–0–1Scarlets2 meetings, 2023 to 2024 · Clermont Auvergne by 9.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-13 | Clermont Auvergne 38–17 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2023-04-07 | Scarlets 32–30 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.