Clermont Auvergne vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 42.3%draw 2.5%55.2% SharksSharks 78.6%draw 2.5%18.9% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 29.9%draw 2.5%67.6% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Sharks and 16 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 9 Sharks and 7 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Sharks 1746 — 280 points, favouring Sharks
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne0–0–2Sharks2 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Sharks by 19.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Sharks 50–12 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-05-04 | Sharks 32–31 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.