Clermont Auvergne vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 53.3%draw 2.5%44.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 69.1%draw 2.5%28.4% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 40.8%draw 2.5%56.7% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stade Francais Paris and 25 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 47 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne12–2–8Stade Francais Paris22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 2.8 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · Stade Francais Paris by 2.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Stade Francais Paris 64–20 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-11-29 | Clermont Auvergne 36–32 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-10-26 | Stade Francais Paris 36–6 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-04-27 | Clermont Auvergne 41–18 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-01-06 | Stade Francais Paris 14–14 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.