Clermont Auvergne vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 58.6%draw 2.5%38.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 81.0%draw 2.5%16.5% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Francais Paris and 20 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 6 Stade Francais Paris and 10 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 265 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne15–2–8Stade Francais Paris25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 4.3 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · Clermont Auvergne by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Clermont Auvergne 25–16 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2026-03-29 | Stade Francais Paris 64–20 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-11-29 | Clermont Auvergne 36–32 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-05-31 | Clermont Auvergne 55–20 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-10-26 | Stade Francais Paris 36–6 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.