Clermont Auvergne vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 56.1%draw 2.5%41.4% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 69.3%draw 2.5%28.2% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 42.5%draw 2.5%55.0% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Toulousain and 19 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 135 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne8–1–15Stade Toulousain24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 7.2 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Stade Toulousain by 14.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Stade Toulousain 24–27 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2025-09-07 | Clermont Auvergne 24–34 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-02-16 | Clermont Auvergne 18–35 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-10-12 | Stade Toulousain 48–14 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-02-25 | Clermont Auvergne 33–37 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.