Clermont Auvergne vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Toulousain host Clermont Auvergne on Saturday 7 November at Stade Ernest-Wallon, Toulouse, so Stade Toulousain are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Clermont Auvergne 32.8%draw 2.5%64.7% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 86.0%draw 2.5%11.5% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 20.1%draw 2.5%77.4% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Toulousain v Clermont Auvergne, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Clermont Auvergne and 37 Stade Toulousain, half of them between 4 Stade Toulousain and 24 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 13 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Toulousain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Toulousain, a bar to the left helps Clermont Auvergne.
Stade Toulousain 1992, Clermont Auvergne 1466 — 526 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne8–1–16Stade Toulousain25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 7.2 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Stade Toulousain by 14.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Stade Toulousain 24–27 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2025-09-07 | Clermont Auvergne 24–34 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-02-16 | Clermont Auvergne 18–35 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-10-12 | Stade Toulousain 48–14 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-02-25 | Clermont Auvergne 33–37 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.