Clermont Auvergne vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 77.5%draw 2.5%20.0% ToulonToulon 41.1%draw 2.5%56.4% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 67.2%draw 2.5%30.3% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Toulon and 28 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 7 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Toulon.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Toulon 1435 — 294 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne13–2–12Toulon27 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 1.9 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Clermont Auvergne by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Toulon 14–34 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-10-11 | Clermont Auvergne 27–10 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-04-19 | Toulon 31–24 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-10-06 | Clermont Auvergne 19–18 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-06-02 | Toulon 52–10 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.