Clermont Auvergne vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 57.8%draw 2.5%39.7% ToulonToulon 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 35.8%draw 2.5%61.7% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Toulon and 21 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 5 Toulon and 11 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 2 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Toulon 1663 — 197 points, favouring Toulon
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne13–0–12Toulon25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Clermont Auvergne by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Toulon 14–34 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-10-11 | Clermont Auvergne 27–10 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-04-19 | Toulon 31–24 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-10-06 | Clermont Auvergne 19–18 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-06-02 | Toulon 52–10 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.