Clermont Auvergne vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Vannes host Clermont Auvergne on Saturday 24 October at Stade de la Rabine, Vannes, so Vannes are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Clermont Auvergne 82.8%draw 2.5%14.7% VannesVannes 55.6%draw 2.5%41.9% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Vannes v Clermont Auvergne, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Vannes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Clermont Auvergne and 19 Vannes, half of them between 6 Clermont Auvergne and 9 Vannes, with the middle run at 2 Vannes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Vannes are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Vannes winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Vannes, a bar to the left helps Clermont Auvergne.
Vannes 1280, Clermont Auvergne 1466 — 186 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Vannes are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne2–0–0Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 11.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | Vannes 19–20 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-10-19 | Clermont Auvergne 55–33 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.